Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Cardiff City vs. Crystal Palace/Southampton: The Music, The Moment

I have a long list of songs that I listen to when I need to get fired up.  My running playlist changes every few months, but currently interspersed between Kesha anthems (she's dropped the $ from her name since her stint in rehab) you'll find the following:
  • Welcome to the Jungle, by Guns n' Roses
  • Down with the Sickness, by Disturbed
  • We Will Rock You, by Queen
  • Lose Yourself, by Eminem

That last track, Lose Yourself, never leaves the rotation.  It's the song I listen to just before the start of every race I run.  It was the last song I listened to before diving into the water for my triathlon.  And you better damn well believe that if the Star League recruits me to defend the Frontier from Xur and the Ko-dan armada, then I will be blaring the song in the cockpit of my Gunstar before I launch.

Yes, I really do believe this could happen to me

Maybe I'm a masochist, but a hatred of losing drives me more than a love of winning.  And that is the essence of Lose Yourself.  A reminder that defeat tastes like bile and you can choose to be your best or to be a loser.  A reminder that seems fitting for Cardiff City in its past two matches.  The song goes like this...

Look, if you had one shot, or one opportunity
to seize everything you ever wanted.  One moment.
Would you capture it or just let it slip?
Yo...

His palms are sweaty, knees weak, arms are heavy
There's vomit on his sweater already, mom's spaghetti
He's nervous, but on the surface he looks calm and ready to 
drop bombs, but he keeps on forgetting what he wrote down,
The whole crowd goes so loud
He opens his mouth, but the words won't come out
He's choking how, everybody's joking now
The clock's run out, time's up over, bloah!


Cardiff City 0 - Crystal Palace 3
  • Puncheon (CPL) 31'
  • Ledley (CPL) 71'
  • Puncheon (CPL) 88'

One can only hope that Dragon and Bluebird's Wales correspondent, @jodylaforge, had antacids with him on April 4th when he attended this debacle...



The Bluebirds and the Eagles came into this match ranked 18th and 16th respectively.  Cardiff City had just pulled off a miraculous 3-3 draw against West Bromwich Albion.  And Crystal Palace were coming off an equally astonishing 1-0 win against Chelsea.

So as far as I'm concerned, both teams had just as much motivation and expectation to leave everything they had on the field.  

Alas, it was only Crystal Palace who showed up to play.  Eagle Jason Puncheon's two goals were disheartening, but perhaps less painful than the goal they bookended...


(Image Credit:  Getty Images)

That was the scene after Joe Ledley, Welshman and former Bluebird put one past David Marshall.  

Crystal Palace earned this win.  Cardiff City's Fraizer Campbell's reaction fairly captures the team's mood and that of the fans for the next six days.


(Image Credit:  Huw Evans Picture Agency)

After all the talk of "must-win", the draw and loss to West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace had left me deflated.  This wasn't how the story was supposed to play out.  Cardiff City were supposed to break into the Premier League and set down roots.  Instead, the Bluebirds found themselves with 5 matches left and the same odds of surviving as getting hit in the face with a meteorite.

Lose Yourself continues...


No more games, I'ma change what you call rage
Tear this motherfucking roof off like two dogs caged
I was playing in the beginning, the mood all changed
I've been chewed up and spat out and booed off stage
But I kept rhyming and stepped right into the next cypher


Southampton 0 - Cardiff City 1
  • Torres Ruiz (CAR) 65'

For the Bluebirds, this match was a return to Malky Mackay's "park the bus" play style.  And for once, I am perfectly fine with the approach.  If Ole Gunnar Solskjaer sticks around for a few more years, maybe he can find a way to turn Cardiff City into an offensive powerhouse without leaking goals.  But this team in this season is at it's best when they set up defensively and wait for their opponents to screw up.

This past Saturday, Southampton owned Cardiff City in every possible stat except the only one that matters...

(Image Credit:  PA)

(Image Credit:  Huw Evans Picture Agency)

This win was shocking for several reasons.  First, Southampton are unquestionably a superior team to many that have previously beaten Cardiff City.  Second, the Bluebirds by all reports were imploding not just on the field but in the locker room as well.  Third, Cardiff City had only won on the road one time this season (against Fulham back in September).

With a loss and win over the past two weeks, the Bluebirds are in 19th place with 7 wins, 8 draws, and 19 losses.  The table below captures the full Premier League standings as of 04/16/14.  The table columns are:  Current Position (POS), Last Position (LP), Club Name (CLUB), Matches Played (P), Wins (W), Draws (D), Losses (L), Goals Fielded (GF), Goals Allowed (GA), Goal Differential (GD), and Rankings Points (PTS).



Believe it or not, even just one goal can make the difference in the relegation race.

We have long since passed the point where Cardiff City could control their own destiny.  But thanks to the win against Southampton and some tough match runs ahead for other relegation candidates, there is still hope for the Bluebirds.  Let's start by looking at which clubs cannot be relegated:
  • Liverpool
  • Chelsea
  • Manchester City
  • Arsenal
  • Everton
  • Tottenham Hotspur
  • Manchester United
  • Southampton
  • Newcastle United

Now let's take a look at the current state of the bottom six clubs:
  • SWA - 33 points
  • WBA - 33 points
  • NOR - 32 points
  • FUL - 30 points
  • CAR - 29 points
  • SUN - 25 points
As you can see, none of these clubs are safe from relegation.  There are still too many end-of-season scenarios to detail them all, but what we do know is that Cardiff City need at least 4 points out of their remaining 4 matches or they WILL be relegated.  And even if the Bluebirds win all 4 matches (gaining 12 points), it still may not be enough to survive.  

I haven't done much predicting this season, mostly because I have no idea what I'm talking about.  But let's throw caution to the wind for a moment.  Here is what I believe are the most likely outcomes for everyone in the bottom 6 except Cardiff City...  
  • SWA pick up 7 more points (wins against AVL and SUN, draw against NEW)
  • WBA pick up 6 more points (wins aginast SUN and WHU)
  • NOR pick up 1 more point (draw against ARS)
  • FUL pick up 3 more points (win against HUL)
  • SUN pick up 0 more points (this doesn't count the result against CAR)
This would lead to a bottom table of:
  • SWA - 40 points
  • WBA - 39 points
  • NOR - 33 points
  • FUL - 33 points
  • CAR - 29 points (not accounting for the remaining 4 matches)
  • SUN - 25 points

Based on these outcomes, Cardiff City need at least 5 points. Probably 8 points, because flukes happen and NOR or FUL could pull out an unexpected win.  Improbable, but achievable.

I did not conduct an interview for this post.  I'm not a shoddy journalist, just an epic procrastinator.  Plus the mood was so dreadful following the Crystal Palace loss that I didn't think it was a good time to ask people how they felt about Cardiff City.

But in the vein of American Bluebirds' supporters, I asked a good friend of mine @MrJoshClancy if he could help me design a new logo for the blog.  Josh plays Graphic Design Hero on Legendary, check out his work!




If you like this logo and have any interest in something similar for your blog or website feel free to contact Josh at mrjoshclancy@gmail.com

In Fantasy news, the Cardiff'rent Strokes have dipped in performance, but I still think we can finish in at least the top 900,000 players...

  • Rank (Last Week):  915,073
  • Rank (This Week):  939,294
  • Total Players:  3,210,060

Well that's it for this week.  Cardiff City's next match is at home on April 19th against Stoke City.  Survival is still a very real possibility and the Bluebirds can do anything to which they set their mind.  Let's hope they set their minds to kicking the Potters' asses.


(Image Credit:  Unlisted)



Thank you as always for reading.  You can follow me on Twitter @dragon_bluebird.  Please be sure to check out friends of the blog @jodylaforge, @DodgemXofficial, and @MrJoshClancy.  Also feel free to leave some comments on my posts via Blogger.  Would love to hear your thoughts as the season winds down.  See you next week!

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