Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Cardiff City vs. Stoke City: Finish the Race

The 118th edition of the Boston Marathon took place this past Monday.  And as we have for the past three years, my wife and I stood on Boylston Street and cheered on the runners as they approached the finish line.

I can only tell you so much about this race and these runners.  If you ever have the opportunity to see the Boston Marathon (or any marathon really) in person, you'll see why words cannot do justice to the awe-inspiring physical and mental toughness that they exhibit.

I don't go to the Marathon to see the elite runners finish, although the idea that a human being can run 26.2 miles in about 2 hours is bonkers.  I go to see the athletes in wheelchairs and handbikes.  I go to see the amputees.  But most of all I go to see the guys that look like you and me who have been running for 5 hours.  

By mile 26, these amateurs (I say that with no insult intended) are typically trotting or walking.  Sometimes their backs are arched horribly from muscle spasms.  Sometimes their legs stop working properly and each step comes with a grimace.  Training, gatorade, and gel packs have carried them most of the way.  Force of will and the cheers from the crowd get them over the finish line.  

I love being a part of that experience, and so to do the hundreds of thousands of spectators along the race route.  

Attending this year was terribly important to me.  Last year, my wife, our good friend Leah, and myself were on Boylston Street.  We were on the same side of the street as the bombs and witnessed them both go off.  It is only by sheer luck that we were almost exactly in the middle of the two explosions and thus out of the blast radius of both.  If you look at the map below, we were standing roughly across from the Lenox Hotel.

(Image Credit:  New York Times)
I spent the next few weeks...months really...in various states of sadness and anger.  But at the same time, I was buoyed by the strength of the Boston community.  The spirit of the marathon is to never give up, to finish the race despite all obstacles.  And even though I wasn't a participant, I felt compelled to be there this year to show my support.

I was particularly happy to witness Dick Hoyt pushing his son Rick (who has cerebral palsy) in their 32nd and final Boston Marathon...

(Image Credit:  AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)
You can see an Instagram video I took of them approaching the finish line here (safe for work).  Be sure to listen with sound!

A friend of mine, Maureen Spencer, did not get to finish her first Boston Marathon last year due to the bombings.  But this year, she re-trained, joined Team Hoyt, and finished her race...




From the somber to the uplifting, let's bring this blog back to it's purpose.  How are the Bluebirds progressing in their own marathon of a season?

Cardiff City 1 - Stoke City 1
  • Arnautovic (STK) 45'
  • Whittingham (CAR) 51'

A frustrating draw when, in all likelihood, a win was needed.

This match was a unique experience for me as a novice Premier League follower.  In the Bluebirds' prior 34 matches, they had no penalties awarded for or against themselves.  This weekend, within the span of six minutes, Cardiff City both received and gave a penalty.  And those two penalties resulted in both of the match's goals.

The team's seem evenly matched in the first half, with perhaps a slight edge towards Cardiff City.  A foul committed in the final moments of the first half led to Stoke City's Marko Arnautovic penalty kick... 

(Image credit unlisted)

Coming off the break, the Bluebirds were reinvigorated and became more aggressive.  And by odd coincidence, the Potters committed a foul and set up this Peter Whittingham penalty kick...

(Image Credit:  Scott Heavey/Getty Images)

For perspective, the next closest club in terms of limited penalties is Norwich with 2 for and 3 against.  The club with the most penalties combined is Liverpool with 12 for and 4 against.  

Smelling blood in the water, Cardiff City played for the win and Juan Cala, the hero of last week's match against Southampton had what everyone thought was the winning goal.

(Image credit unlisted)

Alas, celebrations were cut short when it turned out that Cardiff City were offsides.

This deflated the team but luckily the Bluebirds had David Marshall to prevent an emboldened Stoke City.

I have run out of ways to tell you of David Marshall greatness.  So let me try a different angle.  On Monday (April 21st), the Premier League equivalent of Monday Night Football (which is confusingly also called Monday Night Football) named their 2013 Dream Starting XI.  Among the winners were:
  • 4 players from Liverpool
  • 3 players from Chelsea
  • 1 player from Everton
  • 1 player from Southampton
  • 1 player from Manchester City
  • 1 player from Cardiff City (you guessed it, David Marshall)

The Bluebirds may be one of the worst Premier League clubs, but they do have the talent within to be great if they can survive.  

I say "if" they can survive because for Cardiff City a win was desperately needed.

With this draw, the Bluebirds move up to 18th place with 7 wins, 9 draws, and 19 losses.  The table below captures the full Premier League standings as of 04/23/14.  The table columns are:  Current Position (POS), Last Position (LP), Club Name (CLUB), Matches Played (P), Wins (W), Draws (D), Losses (L), Goals Fielded (GF), Goals Allowed (GA), Goal Differential (GD), and Rankings Points (PTS).



This season is in its final act and the relegation race is heating up.  At this point these are the 11 clubs who are safe from relegation:
  • Liverpool
  • Chelsea
  • Manchester City
  • Arsenal
  • Everton
  • Tottenham Hotspur
  • Manchester United
  • Southampton
  • Newcastle United
  • Stoke City
  • Crystal Palace
It's worth noting that Crystal Palace has become the first of the newly-promoted clubs to reach safety. Which is even more impressive considering that this is their FIFTH stint in the Premier League and the previous four were one and done seasons.

Now let's take a look at the current state of the bottom six clubs:
  • AVL - 35 points
  • WBA - 33 points
  • NOR - 32 points
  • CAR - 30 points
  • FUL - 30 points
  • SUN - 29 points
Cardiff City need at least 3 points out of their remaining 3 matches or they WILL be relegated.  And even if the Bluebirds win all 3 matches (gaining 9 points), it still may not be enough to survive.  

My predictions last week weren't so good.  I picked 3 matches correctly out of 5.  Let's try this again...

Here is what I believe are the most likely outcomes for everyone in the bottom 6 except Cardiff City...  
  • AVL pick up 3 more points (win against HUL)
  • WBA pick up 4 more points (draw against SUN, win against STK)
  • NOR pick up 0 more points
  • FUL pick up 0 more points
  • SUN pick up 1 more point, not counting their match against CAR (draw against WBA)
This would lead to a bottom table of:
  • AVL - 38 points
  • WBA - 37 points
  • NOR - 32 points
  • CAR - 30 points (not accounting for the remaining 3 matches)
  • FUL - 30 points
  • SUN - 30 points

Based on these outcomes, Cardiff City need at least 3 points. But Probably 6 points to be safe.  An achievable plan, but by no means easy.

After a two weeks off, it is once again time to Meet a US Bluebird!

Meet Andrew Lewis (@margam_lew, 04/21/14)
Where do you live and where are you from originally?:  I live in Princeton, New Jersey now.  I moved here 5 years ago. I am originally from the village of Margam in South Wales. It's on the outskirts of Port Talbot. It's a strange town really, very working class with a big steel works. However, it has produced some very talented actors; Richard Burton, Anthony Hopkins and Michael Sheen.

How long have you been following the Bluebirds and how did you become a fan?:  I've been a fan for about 20 years, since my early teens.  Growing up in Port Talbot, you have two choices; Swansea or Cardiff. A lot of older boys from the area supported Cardiff; I liked the way they dressed and the stories they told of going to games.

What is your most favorite Cardiff City memory and why?:  Probably the first time I went to Ninian Park and stood on the Grange End. I think we either played Carlisle or Scunthorpe; shows how far we have come.

If not that, then definitely when we knocked Leeds out the FA Cup. Scott Young and Graham Kavanagh scored, against a Leeds team who were one of the best in the country. 

Who is your most favorite current Cardiff City player?:  Marshy or Kevin McNaughton.  

What makes Cardiff City important to you? Cardiff isn't a glamour club, but the people are unique in my opinion. It's a big catchment area for support, in what is predominantly rugby country. Football isn't widely played in schools.

If you grow up playing football, and following cardiff - it's like you're part of a select group.

What is your favorite US sport and team?  Do you follow any MLS clubs?:  NFL, NY Jets. I follow the Red Bulls a bit, and am always interested to see how the former Premier League guys are doing.

Beckham's team in Miami could be a real game changer, in terms of the profile of MLS. I expect it. 

Do you think Premier League is growing in popularity in the US?  What can NBC or the League itself do to grow its popularity in the US? Absolutely, no doubt about it. The switch to NBC was critical and has worked well.  I really like Gary Lineker, it's a coup for NBC to have him involved. The hillsborough segment he did for the 25 year anniversary was incredible.   I love the early morning kickoff times here on the east coast, breakfast and football are a great combination!

Thanks for the interview, Andrew!

In Fantasy news, as Cardiff City scrape and claw their way up the Premier League table, the Cardiff'rent Strokes continue their tailspin...
  • Rank (Last Week):  939,294
  • Rank (This Week):  1,086,221
  • Total Players:  3,213,058

Let's forget about previous targets of top 800k or 900k.  My only goal now is to manage my squad back into top 1 million players and stay there.

Cardiff City's next match is on April 27th away against Sunderland.  This is the most winnable of the Bluebirds' remaining matches, and could very well be their last chance for any points this season.  You can watch the match live at the ungodly hour of 7am EST or tune in to Dragon and Bluebird next week to find out the result!

Thank you as always for reading.  You can follow me on Twitter @dragon_bluebird.  And feel free to leave some comments on my posts via Twitter or Blogger.  See you next week!

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